The Spookiness of Chance

Sometimes life throws up the oddest of coincidences. Here’s one, for example…

I have lived at my present address here in Austin, Texas, for the last 13 years. On average, I take two or three trips a year which involve catching a flight out of Austin, making about 25 and 30 in total. In all that time I have only ever answered the front door bell on two occasions to find Jehovah’s Witnesses on my doorstep. And guess what? Both times were on days I was due to fly out of Austin.

That did mean I had a convenient excuse for closing the door on them, but what are the odds? Out of over 4800 days they could have called, they called on two of just 30 days when I was preparing to fly out of town.

It’s no surprise that people think that something spooky is going on when these little coincidences happen, or that some kind of higher power is controlling events in their lives. Just think of all the thousands of little events that are continually going on in any one person’s life—who they park next to at work, who they bump into at the supermarket, what they see when they turn a particular corner of a particular street, and so on—so it should be no surprise to anyone that seemingly strange coincidences occur.

But our brains are wired to find connections, to want explanations for seemingly random and disconnected events. And when they do happen for no apparent reason, our brains rebel and do the biological equivalent of blowing a fuse, which gives us that sensation of spookiness that many attribute to ghosts, spirits, or the hand of God.

So, what are the odds that the next time I answer the front door to find Jehovah’s Witnesses standing on my porch will also be a day on which I am about to catch a ride to the airport? Very slim, of course, but it could happen, and if it does—even though I pride myself on my rationality—I doubt I will be able to avoid a moment or two of spookiness while the Jehovah’s Witnesses just stand there wondering what I am laughing about.

(I had a close call a couple of weeks ago when I was just driving off in my car as a team of Jehovah’s Witnesses were working their way up the street, but the streak is still intact, for now!)